Say hello to the new House map:

Click to enlarge.  Apologies to Alaska, Hawaii, and Georgia, which doesn't show the new district boundaries.

This map shows how much support Republicans received in each district.  Because you can't see the urban, overwhelmingly Democratic districts at this scale, it skews towards Republicans.  It shows how Republicans did in rural/exurban/suburban districts: not that great.  The map also makes it easy to see where the battle for control of the House was waged (mostly), in a belt from New Hampshire through New York and Pennsylvania to Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky, and westward to Iowa, the Plains, and the Mountain West.

Below, more ways to look at the amazing victory last week.  The map above might look a bit too red for comfort, but wait till you see the map from 2004.... Cross posted at DailyKos.

Or a Category 5 storm.  Pick your metaphor.

Up front, the generic House ballot shows a building surge in support of Democrats.  Currently, the polls show an estimated Democratic support of 53%, with 38% for Republicans, for a Democratic margin of 15 points.  The change in the Democratic margin is shown below - after a dip following the September Security Scare, voters have dramatically increased their support for Democrats.

Click to enlarge.  Indicates the Democratic margin - zero means a tie.

Below the fold, the generic becomes specific, plus momentum in the Senate.  Come join and see the happy results!  And of course I have more graphs... cross-posted at DailyKos.

Yes, the Republican Nightmare is coming to a city near you:  their base is (slowly) shrinking but the vast political middle of the country is waking up.  Fear is no longer working.  Everything 9/11 changed is changing back, and then some.

Pew's generic House ballot shows even `safe' Republicans are vulnerable.  People are voting on national, not local issues, and the top issue is Iraq.  Since 2002, major survey categories have swung towards the Democrats: moderates, women, and young folks.  These are amazing numbers - are moderates the Democrats' new base?

Click to enlarge.  Large numbers mean we're winning that group; zero is a tie.

Join me below to see just how bad it is, get a boost of euphoria, and then harness that happiness and get back to work.  (And of course, I've got lots of graphs for those of you who enjoy that sort of thing.) Cross-posted on DailyKos.

The Myth of the Values Voter has taken on epic proportions since the election of 2004.   There are indeed many, many people that are strongly motivated by God, Guns, & Gays.  However, it's important to remember that substantial minorities (and now near-majorities) of those who go to church, or are pro-life, or own a gun did not vote for Bush, and do not support the GOP.  

Values Voters are not a monolithic homogenous voting bloc, and they, too, have been deserting Bush (and by implication) the GOP in droves.  Cross-posted at DailyKos.

Click to enlarge.

We've all watched as Bush's approval ratings hover in poisonous territory for almost a year, and wondered how much it mattered.  After all, Bush is not on the ballot this year.  Who cares about him?

Last week I showed that as Bush's approval ratings have gone down, so has the net favorability of the entire Republican party.  This time, we'll see just exactly how Bush's approval affects individual House contests.  To continue with the storm metaphor, looking at numbers only (not campaign funds, operations, and viability of opponents) the Republicans are extremely, extremely vulnerable.  Hurricane Bush is the worst thing in years for the Republican party, and the forecast is grim.

Click to enlarge.

Below, an explanation of the forecast, including discussions on Bush's approval in districts, voter motivation advantages, and exactly how Bush's approval relates to the performance of Republican candidates.  And lots of graphs, of course.  (Cross posted at DailyKos.)

The CBS/NYT polls have asked whether people view the Republican and Democratic parties favorably or unfavorably since December 1985, back when both parties were viewed in overwhelmingly positive terms (nearly 60% favorable for both).

Click to enlarge.

Now, in 2006, ratings of Republicans are near the record lows set in 1998/1999, while Democrats maintain moderately high ratings (last poll R -19, D +12).  Clearly, the Republican brand is tarnished - not a surprise, but the numbers are stark.  Another factor in our favor for next month's elections.

A closer look below, with Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, ABC/WaPo, Fox, and NBC/WSJ polls as well.  Cross-posted at DailyKos.

Polls are starting to roll in now for senate races.  The results of the most recent of these polls, plus the new July Survey USA senator approval ratings if there are no polls for that race, are shown in the map below. (I've left out Hawaii from this map, considered a safe Democratic seat.)

Click to enlarge.

Overall, it looks like Democrats are doing well in the horse race aspect at this time.  MT, MO, OH, PA, and RI look good for a switch to the D column - one short of taking the senate.  No Republican holds a lead for a current Democratic seat, although it's close in NJ.  

Join me below for more maps, the money race, some qualifiers, and some Survey USA results. Cross-posted at Daily Kos.

Bush's national approval ratings were the same in the July and June Survey USA polls - 37%  In between these two polls, his approval may have climbed a few more points and then dropped back down, as some polls came in at around 40%.

Here's this month's map:

Click to enlarge.

Below, the animation and a few charts. Cross-posted at dailykos.